Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Forecasting for Egypt‘s East Coast Wind-Speed
نویسندگان
چکیده
Wind energy contribution as a source of energy in electric utility systems around the world is on the increase. One of the major challenges of wind energy generation is its natural intermittency; unpredictability, and uncertainty. In this paper, two and three dimensional visualization profiles were presented for the power coefficient. Further, two and three dimensional profiles for the turbine output power as function of rotor-speed and wind-speed were presented. Four different adaptive neurofuzzy wind predictors are proposed and compared to forecast the wind speed blowing on the east-coast of Egypt. The proposed wind models are designed using ANFIS toolbox in MATLAB. These models are based on real wind-speed data recordings. Data used in the first model are yearly data for the respective month in which the forecasting is done. Also based on the concept of time series prediction, the other three models are proposed based on one complete month data to forecast daily, half-daily, and quarter-daily of wind-speed. Keywords-component; Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, Membership function, Power Coefficient, Tip speed ratio.
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